So we were talking about the left vs right brain thing over lunch today -- logic vs intuition, maths vs arts, verbal vs visual, blablabla...

 

Warning: What comes next may be totally irrelevant and doesn't make sense at all.

 

I got to think why I am learning statistics. I mean, I've been learning it for a few years now. Apparently it has to be important. Why? Many reasons. One, statistics is related to probability and probability is important in life, so statistics is important too. Why is probability important in life? Didn't some Laplace person once said 'blablabla... the most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability.' But since he is a nerd mathematician, his statement is only a biased estimate of how important the subject really is. Nevertheless, it does suggests with some level of significance that probability is important. But again, does it mean statistics is important then? Not necessarily, for one thing, association is not causation; correlation is not dependency, no no, not the same thing. Ok, even if it's not important, it's useful. Why? Didn't I play all my NBA fantasy games using all the statstracker stuff? It can predict game results. It can forecast player efficiencies. Isn't it cool? yeah, but it's so counter-intuitive sometimes, especially when you use some estimate to figure out other estimates. And what do you say most in stats? Um... in a certain sense, um... it's quite likely that, um... we do not reject the claim, um... but if we do not assume it's approximately normal, um... then it's a different story all over again and you have wasted all your time...

 

I think I've gone too far, and I don't know what I am talking about. But I am pretty damn sure that I talked like a statistician.

 

I hope this is not all that's left in my left brain man... because what's left in my right brain is all GRE words baby, A to Z, baby; and maybe some platonic dialogues...

 

Ok it doesn't make sense. DO NOT READ THIS POST. I blame the weather...

 

word.

 

If you put the word 'failure' into your Google search on your left, or 'liar', you will get a result both expected and unexpected to you.

 

This is a technique called Google Bombing by internet pranksters, or you can check the wikipedia definition out for details.

 

Further, if you search 'Bush' on Youtube, it will return tons of videos of President Bush also tagged by words such as 'idiot', 'stupid' and 'embarrassing'.

 

For example, take a look at the top ten favorite moment of GWB on the David Letterman show.

 

Alright, you laughed and everyone had fun.

 

I have criticized Bush for many things -- his decisions on war against Iraq and Afghanistan; his decision on cutting the education budget; his sabotage of the American democracy; his inability to lead the post-Katrina recovery; his inarticulateness (note: inarticulateness, not stupidity).

 

Clearly, the Bush Presidency hasn't been a success. However, we don't judge a person based on a binary system. A person can be neither a success nor a failure, but rather, a mix of both. Many political figures, and many of us fall into that category ourselves. So to the people who equate Bush to failure, and especially to the americans who ridicule their president's trivial mishaps such as 'the trip or the helicopter bump' as favorite moments, haven't you, more than anyone else, been stereotypical of a myopic and ignorant american?

 

刚在网上看到的消息，好像是内部已经都谈妥了。美国零售业的大佬将分两次先后并购好又多的直营与非直营店。这样一来，沃尔玛“有望凭借该交易一跃成为中国最大的食品和百货供货商。”

 

太可笑了吧？在我看来，这次并购的唯一好处就是沃尔玛直接在商铺数量上压过家乐福等，难道沃尔玛以为凭这个他们就能占领中国市场？

 

好处还不一定见得是好处，坏处就多的去了。

 

一，沃尔玛属于典型美国巨无霸超市，占地面积无数，多数开在市郊，是美国城镇平民（和乡下农民）的首选。城里人很少光顾。我在美国一年只去了Wal-Mart 一次。好又多的超市规模自然小于传统沃尔玛好几倍，加上很大一部分都地处市区。这给沃尔玛融入并购后的商铺提供了障碍。

 

二，沃尔玛的特色就是便宜，商品的档次当然也是适合中低层的消费者，商场给人的总体感觉就是灰蒙蒙，脏兮兮的，至少在美国是这样的。可在中国的外企要想在中低端市场生存的还真是很难。打个比方，你沃尔玛菜卖的再便宜你能便宜过菜市场吗？你日用小商品再便宜能便宜过日用小商品市场吗？其他什么什么的能便宜过开在弄堂门口的小店吗？中国人发明的薄利多销，你沃尔玛就算学得再像，也总得保持个百分之三的利润边际底线吧？自己的特色无法得以发展。做高端又不是沃尔玛的强项。直接导致沃尔玛在北京，上海，杭州等大城市都没有分店。现在靠并购店铺强行切入，收效肯定不好。

 

三，并购以后的工作重叠，销售的内耗，势必导致裁员和重组。要知道，沃尔玛员工福利差是出了名的。等到负面的新闻出来了，业绩肯定受影响。

 

四，中国国内大城市的零售业已经趋于饱和。家乐福等其他大超市的销售成绩也在稳步提升。在这种形势下还选择以大城市为突破点，难有作为。应该继续去发展中小城市，成本低，不需要用并购这种手段，自己投资开店赚更快。

 

五，沃尔玛好像在中国的名气也不大。反正肯定没好又多大。“沃尔玛”本身就没有亲和力，人家其他外国的超市名字都起的有中国特色，比如法国的“家乐福”，英国的“特意购”，另外“易初莲花”，“大润发”，“乐购”，“华商”，小高的“华润万家”就不用说了。（还有那个大番茄的，C-Store，好像叫喜事多，翻的多好！哈哈） 我看并购了以后就叫“好又多玛”算了。

 

反正我是不希望在杭州和上海看到沃尔玛。特别是杭州，不是崇尚精品吗？怎么可以有Wal-Mart？？可是没有用，该发生的还是会发生。今天这么说了说，反而帮它做广告了。哈哈

 

Before I begin, I have to say that this version of windows live space has been working very well, at least much better than it was at its launch in 1st August. A lot of cool gadgets are introduced. You've got to give credits to the spacecraft guys at Microsoft for their effort. It is by far the most popular blog website in the world -- Spaces reached 130 Million users worldwide in just 18 months according to MozatWork. A glance at the front cover of Space below tells you that it's all about lifestyle, youth and simplicity. Isn't that what makes Google successful? Microsoft is catching up.

 

 

It's about lifestyle, youth and simplicity

 

Alright, so I did a little re-shuffle of the modules on my space. I got rid of graffiti wall and the archive; fused in a google search and a small album banner from Picasa; and sorted everything into three columns -- namely from left to right -- the G-series, the Main Blog and the Interactive. The G-series will be mainly for static links that are interesting enough to share, further separated into inbound links ( to my own productions) and outbound links ( to other things). The Main Blog first features a picture which I hope will best capture the theme of my latest updates. Don't forget to scroll to the bottom of my blog if you are interested in subscribe to my RSS feed. Or simply click here. You should try it. It's cool. The Interactive will be the place for all the plug-ins such as the visitor map, the stats tracker and WMP. I want to keep it simple at the moment, so I have to refrain myself from adding more gadgets. But I will still add stuff if I like'em enough. I am currently looking into the QnA module and the Book list (under Customize), so stay tuned.  

 

家有慈父。哈哈，我经常纳闷为什么作为《红楼梦》忠实读者的爸爸从来就没有像贾政对宝玉那样以严父的形象对付我这个有时很顽皮的小孩。在我的印象中，爸爸一直都是睿智和幽默的。加上人比较胖，笑起来别人说他像弥勒佛，所以看来严父形象天生就难以塑造。他更像个朋友一样伴随我的成长。曾经即使是在我叛逆或“偏离了大方向”的时候，爸爸一两句貌似严厉的“训斥”，甚至只要一声叹息，就足以收到立竿见影的效果。毕竟让这么可爱的老爸失望是我最不想做的事情。

 

子曰：其身正，不令而行；其身不正，虽令不行。爸爸给我树立的榜样是多方面的 -- 表现在具体的生活上，对家庭为重，对父母为孝，对兄弟为悌，对朋友为信，对国家为忠。所以不管是面对面，还是在电话里，我爸对我论起道德论起人生都不是空洞的，言传身教，有例可循。另外，我崇拜我爸的大才，小时候不仅读书好，而且在他那个楚河汉界比IQ测试更权威的年代，象棋方面早有很深的造诣，少年时威震苏州，乃河东一霸，足显智谋。后来因为文革，先读北大而后治国平天下的梦想没有实现，也成了我爸的遗憾。（在这点上和我因为签证拒签而没去成西北还真有几分神似。）不过要是他真的去了北大，八成也碰不到我妈，也就没有我了。（不过我妈是杭外的，要不是文革，去读个北外，北大+北外的组合也是有可能的。）说到文革，想当年知识青年一路向北，上山下乡到黑龙江，也是爸爸生命的一部分。每次听我爸讲起他在黑龙江的学习生活，遇见的人，遇见的事，不由得让我觉得那段经历也是他由大才磨砺出大能的关键。成大事，不都需要智谋和实践的双剑合璧吗？

 

从小到大，我们父子之间都有一种很深的默契。交谈时，有时候一个人讲完上半句，另一个就能讲出下半句。读小学的时候，我爸虽然平时工作很忙，但到了周末都会带我去西湖边骑自行车，爬宝石山，或者游泳打乒乓球。后来有车了，就开过钱塘江兜一圈。如果我妈出差，我们家的晚餐八九不离熟食店的牛筋大肠，加南方的大肉包，加紫菜蛋花汤。美味啊，哈哈。以前我最喜欢做的一件事情就是和我爸聊《三国演义》。有时候他还教我听评弹看越剧，不过除了一小段《战长沙》和《五女拜寿》之外，我实在提不起兴趣。他总是说《梁祝》是出好戏，叫我不要光看《罗密欧和朱丽叶》，因为十八相送才最经典。 哎，所以如果有人说我是浪漫主义者，我只好说是因为遗传。这八年虽然我出门在外，我们的共同话题并没有减少。比如以前我在华中的足球队，跟我爸说了；后来永鹏，李浩，柳杭来我家的时候我老爸还跟他们聊起，就连小朋友们踢什么位置他都记得。还有我和我爸都是万马的铁杆球迷，每次输了球我爸总是一声长叹“哎，怎么又看了场输球！？”然后过了几天又到比赛日了问他：“肯定输的，看不看？”，“看的！”。。。上次我妈说中国男篮战胜斯洛文尼亚那场，当王仕鹏三分绝杀的那刻，我爸激动地就差没振臂高呼了，这我是完全可以想象的。这就是我率真的老爸。

 

朱自清通过一篇《背影》描述父子间的情感和矛盾，在我的记忆中，更多的是爸爸看着我的背影和离去。中考的第一天，我爸开车送我到考场门口，他走下车，从面包车的后备箱里卸下我的自行车，叫我考试的时候仔细一点。我推着车走进校门，回头看了看他，他朝我挥挥手，眼神坚定而慈祥。几个月后，我走过机场的安检，回过头，众人中他朝我挥挥手，几乎同样的眼神。就这样，年复一年，回头，挥手，眼神，像一股强大的动力支持着我，让我无畏再大的风浪，都可以像小时候和爸爸玩坦克大战时那样因为后方有他镇守而放心冲到最前线。因为在爸爸的地图上，我不会迷失方向。

 

爸爸，生日快乐！

 

So I was at Subway the other day, working on a simulation project. We were there to collect some data for about three hours. Nothing technical there, just observe how they make sandwich, and time the people queuing, people leaving and well, people slacking. I was surprised at how long the queue can be (sometimes more than 10 ppl) and just how far people are willing to wait for a sandwich. The staff were very efficient, serving each customer in about 2.5 minutes. I think they felt a bit uncomfortable with people "spying" on them at first, though we did tell them it's just some school work. But overall they did well, and we had fun. Yiran laughed pretty hard when I said something about un-toasting the bread, which come to think about it wasn't that funny. We planned to have lunch there after the project, but in the end, I smelt so much like a sandwich that I didn't feel like eating.

 

I think I have lost some weight. People put on weight when they don't exercise. But I am the opposite. So yes, dude needs a sandwich and some work-outs in the gym. Whenever.

 

 

 

I wrote "Get rich dicing and mixing?" in a hurry, before a class. So I ended it like it's some kind of a joke. Of course a million things have to happen after the idea is born. So to get a little bit more serious about it. Here comes the second part.

 

After you re-mix the several ingredients, there are a few outcomes. Let me illustrate this with a simple example. Suppose we have only 4 words: car, cellphone, furniture and internet.

 

1. Sometimes it's a bad mix and it will never work at all. What good can possibly happen with furniture + cellphone? No no, it's like serving steak with beancurd.

 

2. Next, (actually most of the time) it may look like a bad mix at first, but when you spare a second thought, it might just work out. eg. cellphone + internet. No one thought VOIP (voice over IP) will be a viable business until Net2Phone took over the globe, not to speak of Skype's success later.

 

3. Other times, you can get many possibilities out of a combination. eg. car + internet. On one hand, you have autotrader.com and craigslist.com (parts of it) where you buy, sell or even assess cars online (for assessment, see carfax and kbb); on the other hand, you have artificial intelligence software in your car such as GPS.

 

At this point, you might say all that I am doing so far is to put internet before something else to generate a dot-com cliche. Well, seems to be true but it is not, for simple reasons. Firstly, not all dot com businesses are feasible. Some, even if feasible, will only appeal to a very small market, hence have no future. Secondly, 99.99...9% of the good ones have already been done. Look, all I am saying is don't limit yourself in this mental box. Look forward to the next wave, and the wave next. Examples? Wireless technology. One of the participants in the Chinese entrepreneurship reality TV show, "Win in China", had the idea of cellphone + coupons. How does it work? Users can download shopping coupons onto their cellphones and make discounted purchase at stores. (By the way, it's an interesting program, go to the website and check it out.) Thirdly, internet is evolving, fast. So internet + something is not necessarily a traditional dot com anymore. It's the age of web2.0 now. So go for that or even better if you can, 3.0!

 

Well, you might also say that the trick seems to be putting a traditional business model onto a new platform or new media vehicle for commercialization. To a certain extent, that's right. After all, true innovation is about rethinking what technology can do for us, and that alone has continuously brought us numerous revolutionary concepts. But it does not have to be the only case. It can be just two pieces of ordinary erm... thing, like putting LCD TV screen at the lift lobby, or above a urinal in a men's room, or along the highway. You know which company I am talking about? No prize for guessing it right. Again, the moral of the story -- sky ain't the limit!

 

Also, I am not saying that this dice and mix is a good strategy at all times -- it's just something to get the ball rolling. (It looks easy in retrospect, but a lot harder when you are actually creating new ideas.) You still need the right sauces, grandma's secret recipe and a suitable restaurant to dish out a good meal. (That's for another time) But even with all that, most of us will still fail most of the times with most of the ideas. But so what? To be an entrepreneur, failure is a must. Do not shun away from bizzare ideas because you will never know if you don't try. Keep an open mind, maybe serving steak with beancurd isn't such a bad idea.

Guess you all have heard about it by now. Google bought YouTube for 1.6 billion dollars. The most powerful acquiring the most sought-after -- how classic! A deal that turns dozens of 20-somethings into instant millionaires -- How reminiscent of the good ol' days!

 

The idea of YouTube couldn't be simpler. Internet television in two words. But how do we create new ideas like that?

 

Actually it's easy. It's a dice and mix situation. Just break up some old words and terms, throw in a few new ones, mix them all up, randomly pick two out and boom! You get your million-dollar idea right there!

 

Just take a look at the names you see everyday:

 

E-bay: Internet + trade

Google: online + search

RSS feed: Web2.0 + newspaper

Blackberry: cellphone + PDA

MSN space: digital + diary

FocusMedia: LCD screen + elevator

Friendster: online + community

Mobile ESPN: well, mobile + ESPN

 

Alright, so the secret is out. Now go and make your own million dollars.

 

P.S. 1.6 billion??? How do they put a price tag just like that??? What is the valuation method they used? Well, something to think about for my FYP on IP Valuation. I guess there is something to take home for everybody~~

 

Finally I managed to talk to my professor about a career as a consultant. He has been there, done that, and totally loved it. I was so intrigued by his passion, and I thank him for that.

 

 

I will give my best shot at BCG.

 

 

In this world, some succeed because they are destined to, but most succeed because they are determined to. I think I need to be both of that in order to win this battle.

 

 

The new season of CBA has just started, featuring two teams from my hometown. Both are underdogs; both are young; but both set out undauntedly to achieve the impossible. Together, we journey on.

保佑我们

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

 

     Doubt thou the stars are fire,

 

 

The butterfly counts not months but moments, and has time enough. - Rabindranath Tagore

 

Decent men marry early, look at Kaka and Raul. - Xiao Bai

 

Thursday... Friday... Saturday!